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Tag: Market Update

Are We Heading for a Recession?

April 14, 2022

With everything happening in our economy, is a recession coming?

Right now, there seems to be one question on everyone’s mind: “Are we heading for a recession?” People are concerned about inflation, rising interest rates, and global conflict, and it’s hard to blame them. Today I want to discuss the state of our market and predict whether or not we’re heading for a recession. 

You can watch my full prediction in the video above, or skip to each topic using the timestamps provided:

0:00 — Introduction

1:02 — Explaining interest rates and inverted yield curves

2:05 — Our yield curve inverted recently, and people became concerned 

3:48 — The three-month yield curve is not inverted

4:50 — Don’t get caught up in the negativity

5:16 — If we do have a recession, it will be mild

6:03 — The unemployment rate is low, and savings are high

8:03 — Wrapping things up

If you have questions about today’s topic, please call or email me. I am always willing to help.

What Is Happening To Lumber Prices?

August 9, 2021

Here’s how lumber prices have been affecting the real estate market.

One of the most common questions I get is, “What’s up with lumber prices?”

The height of the lumber price bubble was last May when it cost $1,515 per thousand board feet. Right now, lumber prices are down 68% to $479 per thousand board feet. That’s actually lower than it was this time last year. The price probably would’ve fallen further if it weren’t for the wildfires in British Columbia. At 2:07 in the video, you can see a graph of lumber prices over the last year.

What does this mean to you as a homeowner? If you’re looking to build, I would wait another three to six months to see an actual price drop for a new-build home. If there’s more lumber supply, more homes will be built, and that could slow down the increasing home values across the country. If you’re looking to sell, it’s a very good time because demand is still much higher than supply.

If you have any questions, please call or text me at 480-227-2028. 

What’s Happening in the Phoenix Market Right Now?

April 21, 2021

Here’s what you need to know about the Phoenix housing market right now.

Today we have a quick update for you on the Phoenix housing market. The latest numbers are in, and we’re excited to share them with you. We currently have 9,500 active listings for sale. That’s a big 49% decrease from last year when we had 18,300 at this time. As of March 2021, there were about 8,800 homes available, so we’ve seen an 8% increase in inventory month over month. We’ll keep a close eye on this trend. Home sales are up by 15% from this time last year. We had 9,900 homes sell last month compared to 8,400 in 2020. We have just a 0.5-month supply of inventory, down 70% from the already-low 1.7-month supply we had at this time last year. Homes are selling in an average of 32 days right now, which is down 39% from the 52-day average last year.

The population migration to Phoenix right now is incredible.

Here’s a great stat for homeowners: Home appreciation is up 16.8% year to date across the board. Last year during this time, we saw a 6.6% increase. The market has been going up for years, but the appreciation we’ve seen so far this year is simply insane. These numbers aren’t great for buyers, but there are still strategies you can use to win as a buyer in this market. With interest rates still in the 3.5% range after a slight bump, homes are still affordable. If rates were to go up another 0.5%, you’d see about a 5% drop in buying power. Where do we go from here? Right now, 5,500 people are moving here just from California. People are moving here from other parts of the country as well. Our population migration is huge, and the trend is only going to continue. If you have any questions for me about the market or real estate in general, don’t hesitate to reach out via phone or email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

How Will Our Phoenix Market Close Out 2020?

December 10, 2020

Now is still a great time to both buy and sell in our real estate market.

2020 has been a wild year, to say the least, and it’s time for one last market snapshot before it ends. Before I get into the latest numbers, I want to thank all our clients, friends, and family for supporting the Kelly Cook Real Estate Group. Right now, there are about 10,000 active properties for sale in the Phoenix Metro area, and inventory stands at 1.4 months of supply. In other words, if no other homes came on the market, it would take 1.4 months to sell off all available listings. The good news is that roughly 7,300 homes came on the market during November. The bad news is that 8,200 homes came off the market, which means supply and demand continue to be pinched. The average days on market, meanwhile, is 38 days.
“With interest rates and supply this low, I predict a robust Arizona housing market in 2021.”
If you’re a seller, it’s a no-brainer that now is the time to sell. In the week leading up to the recording of this video, we sold four homes—each of which attracted multiple offers and sold for over asking price. Conditions may yet improve for sellers, but waiting to sell would mean trying to time the market. If you’re a buyer, you may remember that last month we talked about the three main reasons why now is still a good time to buy. To reiterate, interest rates are low, which means your buying power is high. With interest rates and supply this low, I predict a robust Arizona housing market in 2021. If you have any questions or are ready to buy or sell a home, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to help you. Merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah, and happy holidays. We’ll see you in 2021!

What’s Happening in the Phoenix Real Estate Market?

May 6, 2019
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Although we may see a market correction in the next few years, it’s unlikely that it will happen in 2019. For the time being, our market remains extremely strong.
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Today’s topic is a good one. We’re going to discuss where our real estate market is at this very moment in Greater Phoenix.

Here’s some perspective. The housing market moves in cycles, usually in 10- to 15- years at a time. It always has and it always will. When the market started to tip during the last housing cycle, it was in the 2nd quarter of 2007. Obviously, 2008 is when things got bad, but we were already in a declining market by that point.

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Inventory is still low, and so are interest rates.

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It’s been about 12 years since that point, so a correction is around the corner in the next few years. According to First America Financial Corporation, though, 2019 will be an even more robust year for sellers than 2018 was.

A big reason for this is the fact that more and more millennials are now forming families and becoming homeowners. Because this segment of the population is so large, it’s creating huge demand, which is great news for sellers.

Another reason is that we still have low inventory. Rates are low as well, and they’ve dipped back below 5% to 4.25% on average. That’s cheap money to borrow if you’re looking to buy. Down payment assistance programs are out there that will give you up to $15,000 for assistance as well.

What does this all mean for you? Well, we’re experts in selling residential real estate and we want you to know that we’re here to provide value for you. If you have any questions for us in the meantime about the market or about your personal situation, don’t hesitate to give us a call or send us an email. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

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